South China Sea: U.S. Must Draw a Line on China’s “Grey Zone” Threats

Over the previous decade, the United States appears to have overlooked China’s maritime insurgency too often, dismissing it as a small ploy to influence events and distract from the more serious problem of China’s worrisome naval capability for full-scale kinetic attacks, including counter-drone technology deployments.

In response, the Carnegie Corporation of New York has supported the US Naval Institute’s Maritime Counterinsurgency Project, which aims to bring together prominent maritime strategy experts to analyze effective ways for the U.S. and its allies to shine a brighter light on China’s escalating illegal activities to harass, intimidate, and bully other states in the South China Sea.

Timing is everything. China is currently implementing a two-pronged approach, wherein it is both prepared for potential conflicts between states and actively striving to achieve its objectives through non-military means.

China’s most recent high stakes maritime moves occurred on October 22 with two ship collisions at the Ayungin Shoal (also known as the Second Thomas Shoal), both well within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. A Chinese Coast Guard vessel brushed up against a tiny Philippines government-contracted resupply boat; then a Chinese armed militia vessel bumped into a smaller Philippines Coast Guard vessel.

Although “grey zones” and maritime insurgency are not synonymous, they are both part of the greater security issues in the conflict zone. The risks to international maritime law may soon necessitate more than enhanced Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs). Over the last decade, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has swiftly modernized and expanded its capabilities by investing in new ships, submarines, and naval technologies.

On August 28, China’s Ministry of Natural Resources made another bold move when it published what it has referred to as a new standard map, which now includes 10 dash lines – an expansion from the nine-dash line that was already rejected by the United Nations’ Law of the Sea tribunal.

China’s actions prove alarming in light of Washington’s new bilateral defense guidelines with the Philippines, released in May 2023, which clarify the circumstances under which American soldiers would come to the rescue of their Philippine counterparts under the terms of their mutual defense pact. The instructions signaled a shift in American policy in the South China Sea from “scrupulous noninvolvement” to preventing provocative Chinese acts in “grey zone” circumstances.

Read the full article on Geopolitical Monitor.